I don't disagree with the intent, but rather the execution.
I'm actually fine with a good majority of skins for weapons and characters being random drops in games. It's nice to see that you may get something for an item. In fact, I am also fine with a skin set that they have on sale, since it is a specific look I get to choose to buy. As long as I have the Choice and Guarantee to get the skin I want I am okay shelling money out.
However, and this is based on the notion that TWI will take some time to read this thread and others like it, I don't like the random crate system that have to be opened with keys. Instead, I would rather have something replace it, since I don't like having to spend money for a Possible Choice.
A good example could be that Universal USB sticks exist, and can be used to open any crate or decoder, but are very rare drops in game. That or have a number of USB sticks tied to achievements, and when completing one you gain a pertinent USB stick. If you beat patty, you get 1 Horzine USB for the crate or decoder. Beating Hans gives you something else. And beating either on the hardest difficulty gives you access to 1 Golden USB, allowing you to get at least 1 gold item without spending money.
In other words, rewarding players for playing the game naturally, and still having the option to circumvent that if you so choose by going through the store. I think that in this case Early Access may be the best way to go about it, since it gives us the chance to let our thoughts be known and tweak the system to the best it can be.
Would be good but they probably won't do this however. The way the crate system works, and what makes it so profitable, is that it's a multi pronged approach to generate money. First through direct key sales, then through market transaction commissions, and crate sales.
By limiting the rarity of good drops due to chance, more keys have to be bought for a good statistical chance of getting a good item. Due to the key paywall and random chance, those items are high in demand in the market and thus sell for high value. High values mean high commissions.
After enough of them drop, market gets saturated and the price eventually goes down, sure. Introduce new crates and new rare skins however, and the cycle comes back up again.
If you do like CSGO and have time gated case drops however (tournament cases, etc) another thing happens. Eventually, no more of the old rare cosmetics drop, which means that given enough time they will gain value again.
Then there's the whole gray market of item lotteries, and paypal transactions that keeps a lot of big fish in the game, buying crates, flipping items, and playing lotteries. Also, the flipper bots as well.
Oh, not to mention you have a bunch of "quality" levels to further dilute the drop tables, artificially increasing the rarity of already in demand skins.
Strike a balance, introduce new rare items and cases regularly, and you have a pretty killer way of generating money.
