I like RO very much but I am frustrated by how powerful grenades are, not wanting to merely whine, I tried to do some research, but the only information I could find was maximum effective distance of grenade fragments, which leave open the question of probability, and anecdotes which aren't very scientific. So I did some calculations of my own and I present them here for your review.
What is the chance that a soldier standing up right would be killed by a grenade exploding 10 feet away on the ground?
Well the fragments of the grenade would probably fly in all directions creating a shperical pattern of dispersal, except that the explosion would be directed away from ground creating a half sphere pattern of dispersion.
The surface area of a half sphere is (pi*4*r2)/2 so at 10 feet there would be (3.14*4*10^2)/2= 628 square feet that the fragments would be flying through. A man standing at 6 feet and 1.5 feet wide would occupy 9 square feet. So taking 628/9=70 we get a one in 70 chance of a hit if there was just one fragment from the grenade, but a grenade has many more than one fragment.
How many fragments come off a grenade? Who knows, but we can take the weight of a soviet F1 grenade (from wikipedia) of 600 grams subtract the explosive filler of 60 grams and get 540 grams of metal flying through the air. But how lethal is all this metal flying about?
A 30-06 bullet (again from wiki) weighs about 10g so Lets divide 540g by 10g to get 54 rifle bullet sized fragments, or groups of fragments.
Taking these 54 lethal groups of fragments, and the 70 we got earlier 54/70=77% chance of a hit against a standing man at 10 feet. Since not all hits would kill, i propose taking an approach of 50/50 lethality based on the fact that about that much of our body is made up of less vulnerable arms and legs that if hit by 10grams of grenade fragments probably wouldnt give a lethal wound. Taking 77/2= 39% chance of a lethal hit.
To put this more in game terms, a grenade landing the length of two prone men head to foot away (12 feet) would kill you a little more than 1 of every 3 times, I think a definte improvement against your chances now. A grenade landing 20 feet away or a little more than the length of 3 prone men would have a 39%/2=20% or 1 in five chance of killing you. Again a nice improvement over the current situation.
I think the current grenade damage probablity is a wild guess based on the reported maximum effective range, i think the probailities generated here would be much more fun to play with (less nade spam) and also more realistic. As a possible counterbalance,we could have more than 2.
What do you guys think?
What is the chance that a soldier standing up right would be killed by a grenade exploding 10 feet away on the ground?
Well the fragments of the grenade would probably fly in all directions creating a shperical pattern of dispersal, except that the explosion would be directed away from ground creating a half sphere pattern of dispersion.
The surface area of a half sphere is (pi*4*r2)/2 so at 10 feet there would be (3.14*4*10^2)/2= 628 square feet that the fragments would be flying through. A man standing at 6 feet and 1.5 feet wide would occupy 9 square feet. So taking 628/9=70 we get a one in 70 chance of a hit if there was just one fragment from the grenade, but a grenade has many more than one fragment.
How many fragments come off a grenade? Who knows, but we can take the weight of a soviet F1 grenade (from wikipedia) of 600 grams subtract the explosive filler of 60 grams and get 540 grams of metal flying through the air. But how lethal is all this metal flying about?
A 30-06 bullet (again from wiki) weighs about 10g so Lets divide 540g by 10g to get 54 rifle bullet sized fragments, or groups of fragments.
Taking these 54 lethal groups of fragments, and the 70 we got earlier 54/70=77% chance of a hit against a standing man at 10 feet. Since not all hits would kill, i propose taking an approach of 50/50 lethality based on the fact that about that much of our body is made up of less vulnerable arms and legs that if hit by 10grams of grenade fragments probably wouldnt give a lethal wound. Taking 77/2= 39% chance of a lethal hit.
To put this more in game terms, a grenade landing the length of two prone men head to foot away (12 feet) would kill you a little more than 1 of every 3 times, I think a definte improvement against your chances now. A grenade landing 20 feet away or a little more than the length of 3 prone men would have a 39%/2=20% or 1 in five chance of killing you. Again a nice improvement over the current situation.
I think the current grenade damage probablity is a wild guess based on the reported maximum effective range, i think the probailities generated here would be much more fun to play with (less nade spam) and also more realistic. As a possible counterbalance,we could have more than 2.
What do you guys think?